Tadej Pogačar's Unprecedented VO2 Max: Redefining Cycling Physiology

In the evolving landscape of professional cycling, where data increasingly governs athlete assessment, a groundbreaking study has posited that Tadej Pogačar, the current world champion, exhibits a maximal oxygen uptake (VO2 max) potentially reaching an extraordinary 96 ml/kg/min. This finding suggests Pogačar could surpass the long-held record of cycling legend Greg LeMond, solidifying his status as an unparalleled talent in the sport. The study emphasizes the critical role of physiological metrics, such as VO2 max, in identifying and understanding the capabilities of elite endurance athletes, positioning Pogačar as a subject of intense scientific and athletic fascination.

Modern professional cycling, particularly in the current decade, has transformed into a highly data-driven discipline. With advancements in sports science and power measurement technologies, every aspect of an athlete's performance—from absolute power and watts per kilogram to aerodynamic efficiency, endurance in kilojoules, heart rate variability, and recovery rates—is meticulously analyzed. Scouts and coaches leverage sophisticated software and algorithms to process this wealth of information, diligently searching for the next generation of cycling superstars. Among these numerous metrics, VO2 max remains a paramount indicator of an endurance athlete's inherent capacity and potential.

Maximal oxygen uptake, or VO2 max, quantifies the highest volume of oxygen an athlete can utilize during intense exercise, measured in liters per minute. For an average male in his twenties, a typical VO2 max ranges from 38 to 43 ml/kg/min. In stark contrast, professional male cyclists typically exhibit values ranging from the mid-70s to the high-80s. Notable examples include Lance Armstrong, whose VO2 max was reportedly 85, and five-time Tour de France victor Miguel Induráin, who achieved an impressive 88, a figure similar to four-time Tour champion Chris Froome.

However, Greg LeMond, a celebrated American cyclist, is widely recognized for having recorded the highest VO2 max in cycling history, achieving an astonishing 92.5 during a training session early in his career in Colorado Springs. This result was so remarkable that the testing personnel reportedly reacted with profound surprise. Yet, LeMond's nearly four-decade reign as the undisputed VO2 max leader in cycling now appears to be challenged by the emergence of Tadej Pogačar, whose physiological data suggests a new benchmark.

According to research by Norwegian scholar Ole Kristian Berg, Pogačar's VO2 max could reach as high as 96 ml/kg/min. To contextualize this, 96 ml/kg/min was, for many years, considered the highest recorded VO2 max, notably achieved by Norwegian cross-country skiers Espen Harald Bjerke and Bjørn Dæhlie, with the latter often hailed as the greatest male skier ever. This record was surpassed in 2012 by Oskar Svendsen, an 18-year-old world junior time trial champion, who posted an astounding 97.5. Despite finishing fifth in the Tour de l’Avenir the following year, Svendsen ultimately did not pursue a professional career, retiring in 2014 due to burnout.

In a recent article titled 'Tour de Physiology: The Exceptional Power Outputs and V̇O2 of climbing in the Tour de France', published in the Journal of Science and Cycling, Berg argued that Pogačar's dominant performances in the 2024 and 2025 Tour de France editions demonstrated him pushing the boundaries of human physiological performance. Although Berg's assessment of Pogačar's maximal oxygen uptake was not conducted under laboratory conditions, his conclusions were based on the cyclist's climbing prowess and power output across six mountain stages in the two recent Tours: Plateau de Beille, Isola 2000, and the Col de la Couillole in 2024, and Hautacam, Peyragudes, and Mont Ventoux in the 2025 race.

To estimate Pogačar's power output and subsequently translate it into VO2 max, Berg, a researcher at Molde University College's Faculty of Health Sciences and Social Care, meticulously gathered relevant time and elevation data from Pogačar's Strava account. He also utilized the Slovenian's publicly available weight and height, along with an estimated weight for his Colnago bicycle. These data points were then employed to calculate estimates for the world champion's critical power, defined as the maximum power a rider can sustain for 40 minutes. Berg cross-referenced these findings with data from fellow Tour rider Derek Gee, who publicly shared his power meter data on Strava, to validate his estimations.

Across the six ascents examined in the study, Pogačar consistently maintained an impressive power output of 6.4 to 7 watts per kilogram, averaging between 421 and 462 watts. His peak performance occurred on the Peyragudes stage during the 2025 Tour, which featured a short mountain time trial, while his lowest figures were recorded on Mont Ventoux a few days later. Remarkably, even on Mont Ventoux, Pogačar shattered Iban Mayo’s 21-year-old record on the iconic Giant of Provence, despite battling a headwind and engaging in a tactical struggle with Jonas Vingegaard. This performance was also influenced by a reported knee pain that began to affect Pogačar during the final week of the 2025 Tour.

Pogačar’s most outstanding individual performance in the last two Tours arguably came at Plateau de Beille, where he significantly distanced Vingegaard by over a minute and obliterated Marco Pantani’s long-standing record on the Pyrenean climb. On this stage, Pogačar ascended at an astonishing 6.9 w/kg, having already covered nearly 200 kilometers and conquered four previous category one ascents. Berg then computed Pogačar’s VO2 max by assuming that critical power in elite cyclists typically corresponds to 85 to 90 percent of their VO2 max. The researcher noted that the values derived from Plateau de Beille in 2024 suggested a VO2 max range of approximately 91–96 ml/kg/min for Pogačar, likely towards the higher end given the preceding strenuous stages and overall race fatigue. Berg also indicated that prior endurance efforts might have slightly reduced the rider's gross efficiency, making the effort more metabolically demanding and thus pointing to even higher potential VO2 max values. However, he acknowledged that factors such as wind direction and drafting were not accounted for in his analysis, which relied on secondary data, though these variables would have been less influential on steeper climbs and during time trials like Peyragudes.

Ultimately, if Pogačar were to undergo testing under controlled laboratory conditions, free from the exhaustion and strategic complexities of a Grand Tour, it is highly probable that he would achieve a VO2 max in the high 90s. These findings, as articulated by Berg, underscore the "extreme underlying physiology" that has propelled the Slovenian cyclist to his current standing as one of the sport's greatest athletes. His remarkable biological endowments are a key factor in his extraordinary achievements and consistent dominance in professional cycling.